There is consensus among scientists that Africa is the continent that would be most vulnerable to climate change. Temperatures in Africa are projected to rise by 1.5 – 4oC during this century, greater than the global average. These temperatures will exacerbate desertification processes already driven by deforestation, overgrazing, destructive agricultural practices and land degradation.

Significant rise in temperatures is also expected to trigger more frequent cyclones, floods and drought, as well as sea level rise of 20-50 cm by 2050. Low-lying areas, including major cities that are centers of economic growth such as Accra, Dakar, Durban, Lagos, Dar Es Salem, Maputo, and Mombasa, are expected to become more vulnerable to flooding and erosion, because of sea level rise, leading to loss of human settlements and life. This will also destroy key economic infrastructure such as roads, ports, and factories. This will also lead to massive migration of coastal people into the hinterlands, triggering conflicts over lands and fresh water resources.

These changes are expected to adversely affect economic and social development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Already, especially this part of Africa is facing an annual loss of 1-2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of climate variability.

The recent prolonged drought in Kenya and East Africa saw a negative impact in agricultural activities, which are a major driver of economic growth in most African countries (crop failure, loss of livestock). This is also partly because agriculture in East Africa continues to be largely rain-fed even though the region is water-scarce. In 2009 the government announced that millions of citizens faced starvation as rains failed to come and crops dried up. Rainfall is projected to drop by 50% by 2020, leading to greater food insecurity and malnutrition

In Kenya, decreased volume of water in the main Tana River forced the government to close some of the hydropower dams and this lead to rationing of electricity. There was also loss of wildlife, which is the bedrock of the tourism industry. In such situations, economic performance fall drastically and people lose jobs and livelihoods. With climate change, the situation is only expected to worsen and eventually undermine the economic and social development of the region. Indeed there is concern that climate change will continue to reverse some of the economic and social gains that Sub-sahara Africa has made in the last decade.

So Africa must act quickly and make herself less vulnerable by embracing initiatives that are do-able, inexpensive and do not call for high level of technology and expensive experts. For example, Africa should invest in sustainable land and water management practices that would improve agricultural yields, but also help to sequester carbon which would otherwise end up in the atmosphere and contribute to climate change.

Agricultural practices such as slush-and- burn, overgrazing, encroachment into forests, wetlands and river beds can promptly be discontinued because they reduce green biomass on the land. Farmers should be required to make terraces on their farms, dig cut-offs drains and trenches and thereby harvest rain water and stop soil erosion. They should also be required to plant indigenous trees and vegetation (not eucalyptus and other exotic species) on wetlands and along the rivers. The indigenous forests should be protected at all costs.

Cultivation of monocultures of exotic species of trees (shamba system) and grazing of domestic animals in forests should be stopped. All these processes drive desertification processes and they will continue to make African people very vulnerable, especially in the face of climate change.

Instead improved management of agricultural lands can contribute to increased crop yields and sequestration of carbon. Activities suggested here are cheap, do-able and effective in reducing vulnerability and eventually enabling Africa’s smallholder farmers to sell carbon emission reductions based on sustainable agricultural land management. These are also initiatives that can be scaled up across the African continent and prepare farmers to take advantage of the carbon market, which it becomes available.

However, past performance of government institutions in initiatives such as large-scale irrigation schemes and food production, forest protection, wetland and river management have been unsuccessful and have sometimes violated human rights. This has been due to lack of capacity, mismanagement riddled with corruption, incompetency and sometimes under-funding.

Lack of capacity, ignorance and incompetency can be improved through capacity building and information dissemination through the financial mechanism that will be created at Copenhagen to adapt and mitigate against negative impacts of climate change. Under-funding can also be easily addressed. However, no amount of money or education can replace the political will of leaders to guide their people and govern responsibly especially with respect to human rights, justice and equity. No money can replace values of hard work, honesty, fairness, transparency, and accountability in management and governance. These are a responsibility of citizens and their leaders.

If civil servants and citizens in general believe that Climate change funds will be made available for self enriching or so that they can be able to live a life of luxury, they will be surprised, because the taps will run dry very quickly. The international community and citizens of the rich countries have to be persuaded that the resources made available will be used as prescribed. That may sound like being treated like children or lectured to like irresponsible adults. But that is part of the past baggage that especially leaders from the African region bring to the table.

Africa will make her people less vulnerable by embracing the values that will no longer tolerate corruption, dishonesty and injustices. This in turn, can only be reduced through political will to hold those accountable for theft or corruption to refund what they have stolen from the pubic. It is also the political will that can end the culture of impunity from governance systems. Until that is done, there will be little change no matter how much money will be pumped into the system to adapt or mitigate to climate change. If we want to be less vulnerable, we must not only change the way we do business in our offices, but also change the perception that we dig our own graves by failing to take full advantage of opportunities available to us. In Copenhagen there will be opportunities and it is up to us to take them and reduce our vulnerability.